Most companies plan with one picture of the future. Then energy prices rise, a tariff arrives, a supply route fails, or a large customer stops ordering. Whoever has only that one picture decides under time pressure.
Two or three pictures of the future
I work with two or three robust pictures for the risks that reach a mid-sized company: energy and commodity prices, tariffs, exchange rates, interrupted supply routes, the loss of a large customer. Each picture comes with two things. Early indicators tell the management that the picture is coming true. And a reaction has been decided in advance.
Options in stages
The pictures lead to options that can be committed to in stages: a second source of supply, contracts with exit points, a second market that is qualified before the first comes under pressure. What can be tested, I test in days before it is budgeted.
In a crisis, only execute
Whoever has played this through once only has to execute when it matters. The first conversation takes 30 minutes and is free and without obligation. More at business model consulting and market entry.
Source: the author's own mandate experience.